Hubble, Can This Really Be the End?

The spectacular collision between two satellites on Feb. 10 could make the shuttle mission to fix the Hubble Space Telescope too risky to attempt.

Before the collision, space junk problems had already upped the Hubble mission's risk of a "catastrophic impact" beyond NASA's usual limits, Nature's Geoff Brumfiel reported today, and now the problem will be worse.

Mark Matney, an orbital debris specialist at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas told the publication that even before the collision, the risk of an impact was 1 in 185, which was "uncomfortably close to unacceptable levels" and the satellite collision "is only going to add on to that."

Matney said that it could be one or two weeks before NASA knows if the mission will go ahead. If it does, the shuttle Atlantis is expected to reach the telescope in mid-May.

The Hubble experienced a major malfunction of a scientific data router back in September, mere weeks before a mission intended to service it was scheduled to fly. A backup system was switched on and the Shuttle mission was postponed so that a spare part could be tested and flown up. Now, however, that backup system could be all that the Hubble's got. If it fails, the telescope's brilliant run could be over.

NASA spokeswoman, Beth Dickey, would not specifically comment on whether or not the collision had created elevated risk for the Hubble repair mission.

"What we've told everyone is that there is an elevated risk to virtually any satellite in low-earth orbit," Dickey said. "As far as NASA's assets are concerned, that risk is considered to be very small. I have not seen or heard anything that would lead me to think differently."

Dickey noted, however, that the mission would receive a full check out in the weeks between now and the scheduled launch.

"From a standpoint of space operations and the space shuttle program, NASA is going to treat the Hubble mission like any other Shuttle flight," Dickey said. "It's going to get a thorough risk assessment as time passes. The readiness for flight will be determined as we get closer to the [launch] date."

The Hubble mission has experienced its share of ups and downs. In 1990, weeks after it launched, astronomers discovered a major error in the scope's optics and pronounced it stillborn. A heroic engineering effort fixed the problem and led to a string of discoveries based on some of the most-beautiful, highest-resolution images of space ever seen. Hubble, initially deemed a failure, has turned into one of the most successful NASA missions in the post-Apollo age.